FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI

FNUS53 KAPX 090815 FWFAPX FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 ...RELATIVELY COOL WITH MODERATE HAINES INDICES TODAY... .DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONAL WEATHER TODAY. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHERE LAKE BREEZES WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER AND LESS MIXING. THE CLOUDS WILL DEPART THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD WILL STREAM IN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY. MIZ016-017-019-021>023-092015- EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES- 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (470). MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36...EXCEPT 39-44 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (20). MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 47-52 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750). MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-092015- PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF- 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 44-49 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (390). MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39...EXCEPT AROUND 41 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (40). MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 49-54 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER ALONG THE COAST. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 45-50 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780). MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. $$ MIZ020-025>027-092015- LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL- 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 43-48 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (380). MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39...EXCEPT 42-47 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (10). MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT AROUND 51 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 42-47 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (480). MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. $$ MIZ031>033-092015- MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF- 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT AROUND 51 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (580). MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (10). MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 50-55 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT...EXCEPT 40-45 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (540). MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-092015- CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF- 415 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650). MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (30). MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER. MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850). MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. $$ .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ SD